The Current state of AI

Short thoughts on the AI Cycle - and a pivot towards the Power Cycle ☢️

The current state of the AI cycle

• Chat GPT5 is a mess — frankly it gets on my last nerve

• We are decades away from AGI, if ever

• Industry leaders are slowly confessing that the returns from AI aren’t there

• Satya is (openly) outsourcing his data centre and compute requirements, and this is why Neoclouds are “flourishing”

• The Open AI divorce from Microsoft isn’t going well

• Labubu Larry’s deal with Open AI seem to be failing and being mostly hype

• AMD got married to Open AI — and if Open AI sinks, that will be a problem

• Jensen can’t continue selling into China with the Chinese pushing back strongly

• Market took note of Open AI’s move to for Data Centre buildout “backstops”..

• While Sam Altman botched his last podcast interview, badly

• META stock down >20% from peak with market questioning Mark’s strategy, again

• The above just in brief

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This is how we shorted NVDA in the Philochat and nailed the double top 👇

The NVDA Double Top

My last two trades on the Japanese Yen 👇

You're leaving Yen on the table...

While the AI cycle could roll over and die, compute demands will still be there. Even if the compute generation part of the stack isn’t profitable, the power generation part of the stack could be very profitable.

So where will we get the energy from? 👇

Nuclear: The Next Battle