Nuclear: The Next Battle

Similarities between the Nuclear and AI Cycles 👇

Tech supremacy = Energy supremacy.

Here’s the problem: US uranium production cratered after 1980. Now American reactors run on imported uranium mostly from countries that aren’t exactly friendly.

If energy becomes a weapon in these escalating supremacy wars, the US is vulnerable. That’s unacceptable, and Trump 2.0 has already made its move.

OKLO (Sam Altman-backed) is up 15X from SPAC price.

• Think that can’t happen again?

• Think there aren’t more plays in uranium mining, power generation, and emerging tech?

• Think again.

Things are setting up ☢️👇

Yes, the space is full of grift. But there are real opportunities here — and they are setting up not only in the US but across the globe.

1. The Takaichi Premiership is already a big step towards a restart of Nuclear in Japan — with Takaichi advocating for 100% energy independence and pushing for advanced Nuclear technology to achieve this.

2. Friedrich Merz’s Germany is preparing the ground for a Nuclear comeback in Germany and a reversal of the “Nuclear Consensus”. We published Realpolitik on Germany’s energy politics and historical context in 2022.

3. Nuclear Fusion. Germany has announced a 1.7bln Euro investment into a project that aims to commercialise Nuclear Fusion — a major reversal from their Anti-Nuclear stance.

4. Trump 2.0 in May signed an Executive Order to reform the NRC and push Nuclear strong.

Similarities in the AI & Nuclear Cycles

The AI Cycle is underpinned by two trends.

• The existential risk of staying behind in AI spurred a massive capex spending and AI investment cycle.

• The grand ideal of AGI. No Big Tech player or serious Sovereign could afford being left behind. It immediately became all in. AGI would unlock 10-100X in productivity. It became do or die.

IMHO, the Nuclear Energy cycle will be underpinned by similar trends:

• For sovereigns: The existential risk that others could weaponise energy against you. Resulting in a loss of energy independence and dependence in others.

• The grand ideal of Nuclear Fusion for commercial energy. Today we only use Nuclear Fission for energy — we haven’t yet cracked Fusion.

• Fusion is 15X more efficient than Fission. We are talking abundant and near-free energy.

• Like AGI, Nuclear Fusion may be eventually unattainable. But even so, both the ideas of AGI and Fusion spurred massive rallies their respective sectors.

“Ideas rule the world.” —Philo

Interesting times. Probably better not to stay behind.

🦉 Philo