Quick Review by Philo ☢️🇯🇵🇧🇷

How does Offshore and Nuclear connect?

Oct 25, 2025

How Offshore Drillers Relate to the Nuclear Energy Theme
A few years ago, FinTwit couldn’t shut up about Offshore Drillers — Valaris, Transocean, Seadrill. It became the trade.
We were early and long: our Valaris call ran +125% from publication to peak.
We were downside protective: 1.5 years later, we warned on Transocean in April ’23 — RIG drew down 65% from there.
That experience matters. Because we see Nuclear as the next major thematic where our skill set will be deployed with even greater effect. Scroll down 👇

Jim Chanos on the AI Cycle

We have been repeatedly saying since early 2024 — that the ROI (of AI investments) is in the valuations — rather than in the value created by those investments themselves.

Legendary short seller Jim Chanos here (see tweet) spells it out: he explains that the bear case is that the cost of capital is low and everyone can finance the capex.

We go into detail in the Central Bank of NVDA series, scroll down 👇

Coming up on Philoinvestor

After sending out Part 1 of the NVDA series, we sent out Part 2 this week.

In Part #1 we dissected the first 3 layers that explain how Nvidia catalyses and underpins the AI cycle. We prepared readers for subsequent parts.

In Part #2 we 1) showed how compute and GPU dealmaking has become a tool of financial engineering 2) we presented extra layers (very important) that go deeper into the process and 3) discussed the deals that NVDA has been making directly with Neocloud companies like CoreWeave and Nebius.

In Part #3 we will look closer into NVDA’s deals with Open AI and how this makes Open AI the “subprime lender” of this process. We will explain how these mega deals make sense for NVDA, but zero sense for the counterparties.

We will discuss NVDA’s “Internal ROI” and explain the dynamics of the “Deal Multiple” for each of these deals.

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🇧🇷Bom Dia, Philo!

Brazil votes next year. A more pro-business candidate may emerge — but we aren’t trading hopeful politics. Instead, we’re structuring asymmetric strategies that:

Protect downside if Lulanomics persists
Capture upside if a reform-driven shift occurs

Nuclear ☢️ Vs Offshore ⚓️

I announced on the Philochat last week that there is a theme that will probably remain in boom mode even if Tech/AI starts to turn and fade — and that’s nuclear energy.

Nuclear stocks are going crazy with major swings and big gains for those involved.

Nuclear is messy right now — full of hype, grifters, and questionable companies. But thematically we can’t ignore it.

Catalysts I am looking for that could lead to nuclear energy proliferation

Breakthrough technologies will emerge
Infrastructure build out will accelerate
Capital flows will accelerate
Political will gains traction

But this does not mean we are top-down looking for any nuclear stock to go long.

It means we invest in preparation, stay ahead of the curve, track the credible players, understand who’s building tech and infrastructure — and who is just telling stories.

Going forward there will be more Nuclear-company SPACs (OKLO up 13X since the De-SPAC) — as well as moves from Big Tech/Big AI and governments into the space.

Their investments and initiatives will be a bullish catalyst for the sector.

Using Range of Outcomes & Optionality

I noted the Offshore Sector and the case of Transocean — a stock most misunderstood, and ended up losing big money on.

We explained the dynamics in the stock by breaking it down intellectually here. Expect the same wisdom and unique angles in our Nuclear Energy pieces.

Meanwhile, global electricity demand is accelerating just as oil and gas extraction tightens — and then new coalition in Japan is about to restart Nuclear.

Expect 2026 to be very eventful, nuclear even! Ta