💬New thread from Philoinvestor

As discussed in Zooming out on AI, OpenAI and Microsoft are moving with their divorce.

In fact, imagine the Microsoft anchor being lifted off the OpenAI neck - OAI is now free to do business with other Cloud Platforms (like AWS) to distribute ChatGPT etc.

While Microsoft continues to have a license to OpenAI's IP through 2032, Microsoft's license is now not exclusive.

And let's not forget, MSFT is a major shareholder in OpenAI (27%) and stands to benefit from the company's continued success.

As we touched on in Part 1 of Zooming out on AI, Microsoft understands that a strong OpenAI means a strong competitor to Google. A weak OpenAI, means Google can run free...

Game theory, remember?

The AI Stairway to Hell

It's time to write a Part 2, as the setup is getting more complicated and dynamic relative to a few months ago.

Features are being released faster (We're looking at you, Anthropic!) but compute is getting rationed even faster.

All these features are contributing to the hype - but how far detached is this hype from reality?

Contrary to the famous Kanye West line, "I GUESS WE'LL NEVER KNOW", in this instance we will.

The AI Arms Race is creating moves in Semiconductors not seen since Dot Com. Sometimes it feels those buying up memory, CPUs or GPUs are just hoarding them because they may soon have strategic value.

Researchers of the AI Supply Chain are saying NVDA is selling GPUs today, that won't be installed for another year.

Physical limits to the AI infrastructure build out and all...

Unlike vibe coding a website, you can't vibe code data centres.

Cooking the Books

I have in drafts an article on all the ways Big (and small) AI is cooking the books. I need to polish it up before publishing.

Iran War put on Ice

Quite simply, the Iranian war is being put on Ice.

Both sides are buying time and I eventually expect the US is preparing for a bigger offensive sometime in 2026.

The stock market doesn't care, commodity markets already know. Maybe we should work on a Breakout issue to focus on this theme...

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