💬New thread from Philoinvestor
Calm before the storm?
Risk back On and markets moving up as Trump seems to be backing down from further Iran escalation.
Meanwhile, US military is moving assets towards the area of the Gulf - which is what they always do before a major operation...
Iranians aren't hitting first but rhetoric from them is increasingly escalatory.
I published Orange Man Brink & Back to talk about the dynamics around Donald's STOP-GO tactics and what they mean for markets. I see this as a relief rally / bounce from the Brink we were approaching - but now we could be heading back down to the other brink. See attached chart for illustration 👆
We flagged a short (via options) on Lockheed Martin in Fog of Markets as a Regime Change play, already >8% in the money.
In that piece we go deeper into the military-industrial complex and so-called Regime Change trades.
THE AI FEATURE STAIRWAY TO HELL
A follow-up piece to Zooming out on AI is brewing, as Anthropic, OpenAI and others are apparently engaging in a Features Race between themselves, while needing to manage revenues per cost of compute. It's pretty complicated.
You must have seen the news about model regression (AI getting worse!) and rate limits (You can't use it that much) - in a Compute Rationing attempt.
We first talked about Compute Rationing (did I actually coin the term?) last year when users were complaining for ChatGPT models.
GPUs & Ghost Data Centers 👻
Meanwhile it's becoming common knowledge that NVDA is selling Chips that will be installed a year from now, due to Data Centre buildout capacity constraints.
NVDA to Hyperscalers:
"I don't care that you won't use these Chips now, if you don't buy them off me the whole AI Cycle will go in reverse and your valuations will be cut in half. What good will that do for you? And if you don't buy them off me, I will make it HELL for you to buy from me going forward!"
NED Index
The 9 stocks in the NED are up ~17% on average since inclusion, and we are sending out Stock #10 by tomorrow.
Great performance with the NED!
2-3 names are moderately down and detracting overall performance, but a reversal in their prices would push the NED even higher.
Coursera Special Situation
Coursera is reporting tomorrow after hours, looking forward to see the market's reaction. The merger with UDMY is proceeding and I expect to hear more in the ER tomorrow.
