💬New Philochat

Not sure the market is simply pricing a payrolls surprise and a faster hiking cycle.

Besides, this cycle wasn't about macro or rates – it was just AI.

And the Central Bank wasn't the Fed, it's Nvidia. Context: https://www.philoinvestor.com/the-central-bank-of-nvidia/

The market just needed a small push – and I think it's now testing the narrative that enterprise is pulling back from infinite token budgets, to a more cost-oriented AI investment budget 😬

This will have enormous repercussions on the *whole* AI stack, up and down the chain.

Refer to No Ram. No Story. on the memory trade and pointers on what the market is missing.

To an extent, the memory trade is a value trap because of the "low P/E" - and a narrative trap because of the "memory is no longer cyclical" narrative.

I won't divulge everything here but I feel this is setting up to be a defining moment for AI. There are several forces at play, and the more you scratch the surface, the more complicated they become. Yesterday's piece is also notable: Nvidia X Microsoft

As for Crypto, not much to say, whoever was here knows we nailed this.

On Precious Metals: Both Gold & Silver breaking notable formations to the downside (i.e. Bearish!) - and probably won't go bid again anytime soon.

Refer to https://www.philoinvestor.com/food-vs-macro/ for more context. Yes the macro backdrop allowed for bullish moves in both metals, but the setup right now isn't conducive to it.

Reminder: This is not physics, just because the market sold down here violently - does not mean the Nasdaq will break the MA30 so easily. 

Wildcard: Donald saying something uber-bullish over the weekend.

Silent Narrative 🔻

• After Google's $80bln cap raise, now Zuckerberg has expressed intentions to raise money too...
• Which means not even Big Tech has the money to fund this...
• While all the forces we've been talking about keep running...
• And that's why Sam Altman is worried sick, and made the news!

Philo 🦉

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