💬New Philochat
State of the Market.
🎉🎉 It's only been 4 weeks since SpaceX IPO'd to much fanfare.
VCs and other animals going on TV talking about how they will never sell their SpaceX shares, how "this is Elon Musk" and how he had an incredible history of making things happen...
We later had Raymond James come out with an $800 price target on SPCX shares... $800!
It's now at $131 per share, with a market capitalisation of $1.71 trillion.
As George Soros said once, "I would laugh if I saw the joke in it..."
But unlike Soros, I can see the joke in this – even if it's tragic.
My OGs reading this will relate to the following fully.
When you've gone through enough cycles, when you've tried to help enough people, when you've been basically bullied for your views from amateurs and parachutists... when you've seen it happen over and over again...
Besides becoming more experienced, simply because of how many hands (poker analogy) you've played, you also become cynical.
Anyway, you get me. At least I hope you do.
This market has "matured" so much that price targets are set purely on hopes and dreams – with every single "authority" out there unable to remain objective and rational.
From FinTwit authorities to newsletter writers, to multi-billionaires in Silicon Valley or Wall Street...
We sent out a note on SPCX on June 25th to talk about this setup and the crazy valuation that markets awarded this company.
Philoinvestor
At the literal peak of SPCX shares I faded the idea that, just because SPCX would be joining a major stock index, then it would benefit from even more buying pressure.
I have bad news for $SPCX bulls, the market already priced this in and bought in anticipation. https://t.co/hOunRr0WyA
— Philoinvestor (@philoinvestor) June 16, 2026
On that same day we published AI BROTHERS – to discuss OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX, as the latter had recently IPO'd. As I said, that was the peak for SPCX shares.
Philoinvestor
Two days earlier on June 14th, we published The Twilight Period and used this image to illustrate where we are in the cycle.
Use the link below to access the piece
Philoinvestor
Screenshotted excerpt from the piece👇
Micron's Earnings
June was tough for bears, but the icing on the cake was Micron's earnings on June 24th. Shares of Micron gapped up ~15% the next day to celebrate the end of the memory cycle 💀
We published a Flash Philo on Memory and Micron's results a few days later, coming out hot against the whole setup
Philoinvestor
I've pasted enough excerpts for one Philochat, so use the link above to read it.
It's already Friday so I look forward to spending another weekend in front of a computer organising the chaos and pumping out work. A lot to talk about.
You can join us using this link 👇
Philo 🦉
