War in the Middle East.
Palestinian gunmen enter Israel and endless rockets fly.
50 years and one day after the War of 1973 — Hamas and Palestine do the unthinkable. This morning they infiltrated into Israeli territory from Gaza and started killing and kidnapping civilians and soldiers. Israel retaliated by bombing areas in Gaza and the death tolls are increasing on both sides.
Meanwhile from Gaza, Hamas has launched ~5,000 rockets since this morning and still going. No other country or power has entered this conflict to support any side, yet, and that is the most dangerous development.
The region has been heating up for a long time, further escalating after the current Israeli coalition backed by right-wing parties and politicians like Ben Gvir and his Jewish Power (and 5 other parties) went into power.
Ben Gvir was appointed Minister of National Security of Israel, a bad choice from Netanyahu but one I assume he was forced to take to get in power again. LINK.
Remember that Netanyahu himself had run ins with the law and was accused as corrupt — and so he had to overhaul the judiciary to make sure he doesn’t get convicted and stay as PM the same time. Excerpt from the New Yorker piece linked above.
A few weeks later, Netanyahu’s cabinet introduced the first stage in a judicial overhaul that would weaken the country’s Supreme Court and render the government largely impervious to oversight. Right-wing legislators had floated a similar measure before, but it was regarded as too drastic. What changed, Netanyahu’s opponents say, is that he is a defendant now, on trial for allegedly providing political favors to tycoons in exchange for personal gifts and positive press coverage—charges that he denies. By removing constraints on executive power, the overhaul threatened to place Israel among the ranks of such illiberal democracies as Hungary and Poland. In an extraordinarily blunt speech, the country’s chief justice, Esther Hayut, called it a “fatal blow” to democratic institutions. Since then, tens of thousands of protesters have poured into the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities each Saturday. One marcher’s placard summed up the sentiment: “For Sale: Democracy. Model: 1948. No brakes.”
These developments sparked massive protests in the country, and Israel has been in turmoil ever since. Recently soldiers of the IDF expressed their unwillingness to continue serving as a protest to the turn their government has taken. They asked their government and Netanyahu, who they blame everything for, to “immediately stop the dictatorial moves that violate the contract between the government of Israel and its citizens.” LINK.
Why is the Hamas operation called Al-Aqsa Flood?
Palestinian Presidential Spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudeineh stated that the intrusion by an “extremist minister in the Israeli occupation government” into the Al-Aqsa Mosque is a dangerous act that contributes to escalating tensions.
The incident also drew condemnation from Egypt, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Arab League, Qatar, Türkiye, and Jordan. Palestinian factions also vowed to take “revenge” in response to the storming.
Meanwhile, a group calling themselves the “Al-Ayash Brigade” in Jenin, in the northern West Bank, fired a rocket towards an Israeli settlement on Thursday morning.
The group issued a statement saying that the rocket was launched in retaliation for the mosque’s invasion, adding that the Al-Aqsa Mosque is a “red line” that they will not allow to be crossed, and that “greater things are yet to come.”
Palestinian Militants explained that breaking the agreements regarding the Al-Aqsa Mosque were red lines that they would not accept.
REGIONAL CONTEXT & Spillovers from the War in Ukraine
After the war in Ukraine, the global conflict spilled over into Africa with the subsequent coups and developments which have virtually ended Western & European influence on the continent. I wrote a long form essay on the matter here:
But that’s not it — Philoinvestor has also written about the involvement of Middle Easter ponwers and how they play into the whole game for global hegemony. Excerpt below 👇
Screenshot above from:
The China deal with Saudi Arabia and Iran 🇨🇳🇸🇦🇮🇷
Do you remember the deal brokered by China for better relations between Saudi and Iran this August?
China's top diplomat has said that a Chinese-mediated detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia was driving a “wave of reconciliation” in the Middle East and pledged to firmly support Tehran on “issues concerning core interests”.
Don’t you see an anti-West axis ramping up? — China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran et al.
Israel is the only Western-backed player in the region — it makes sense that they would look to restrict Israel’s power. Not to mention that a strengthening Israeli-backed axis goes against the energy interests of Russia, Iran and oil-producing Arab nations.
Fallout and Problems for Israel
I suspect it is not the Palestinians that will have the biggest problem from now on — but the Israelis. The internal political issues and infighting they will have from now on will increase by 10X. The current coalition is in for a severe challenge to its existence, and I believe Netanyahu is not here to stay.
The right-wing parties (e.g. Ben Gvir etc.) will not change their rhetoric of escalation but without a properly functioning and motivated army their threats will have no weight.
Even the US, a long-time ally (and massive funder) of Israel, has criticised Israel on its actions. LINK. 👇👇👇
It seems Israeli politicians believe that the events of today gives them the right and obligation to “level” Gaza — I don’t think they will be allowed to, or can afford to. If this further escalates, you will see many powers run to the support of Palestine. The bombings in Gaza happening as we speak are a knee-jerk reaction from Israel as it tries to regain control, but we are in a different paradigm now. The situation could become untenable for Israel.