Europe's Stockholm Syndrome
Keeping up with events.
Three days ago we sent out “Paradigm Shift in the Transatlantic Partnership” — could there have been a more apt title for what has been happening since?
Global Macro investing ties in with geopolitics whether you like it or not, in fact if you don’t like it, you will have problems in this game.
Where are we now in the (peace) process? The call between Trump and Putin was concluded last week, with an official agreement to commence peace talks on Ukraine.
—> And the European’s aren’t having it!
Since then Trump came out openly against the current regime in Ukraine and is pushing for elections in Ukraine. Glenn Diesen here says that this is a result of Russia asking for this as part of the deal.
So I guess we can say goodbye to Zelensky — let’s see how the elections go. By the way, we have elections in Germany this Sunday and things could go a number of ways..
CDU Leader and Chancellor Scholz (of the SPD) have said they will not deal no matter what the result of the election is. This leaves the CDU/CSU with the AfD, then the Greens and then parties of the left… 👀
I sense that the CDU won’t do as well as the polls suggest, with a further rise in the AfD. This would further complicate things for the CDU in finding coalition partners.
Can’t wait to see what will happen here!
Problems at NATO
For those of you who are new here, we have been calling out problems at NATO and the European Union ever since our inception.
This is from a WTHIH piece I wrote in July 2023. The funny thing is, the US is no longer pushing the Europeans into more conflict — they are doing it themselves by now! Hence the reference to Stockholm Syndrome…
Thoughts on the Military-Industrial Complex
— Predictions from last year
Last year I wrote the piece linked below.
In it I discussed the US military industry and its reliance on the federal government’s ability to continue borrowing (and at subsidised rates).
As I mentioned in Peak American Empire 👇
“For now, the Fed could intervene whenever required to calm markets in times of crisis, keep the rates down and make it easy for the US treasury to continue borrowing cheaply. But can that go on forever? Not really.”
I moved on to discuss the US Budget and how much it spends and where. I gave my thoughts on the future of US Military Expenditure and how that would affect the US Military-Industrial Complex.
“Simply eyeballing the budget one can see that all expenses are either military, interest expense or benefits and social programs. And so the US faces an intractable problem.”
I then went on to conclude where the global state of affairs stands, using game theory and pure common sense.
Now assume that there is indeed an alliance of countries that wants to take over the world, specifically take it from the US. This alliance of countries, let’s call it the “East” — isn’t stupid. This is a battle for world domination.
—> I will let you continue reading on by yourself, here.
—> The crystal ball was up and running almost 3 years ago 🫡🦉
How does this affect markets in the playing field?
As I have announced, we are expanding the offering with more threads and discussion in the Philochat.
Everyday I read the news and follow markets, and using my investing framework, the context and themes that I have — I provide commentary on the goings on and trades setting up.
I gave examples here and also announced our impending price increases. Screenshots from the Philochat here.
Sincerely,
Philo 🦉