Trump is Pot Committed

"The key to no-limit is to put a man to a decision for ALL HIS CHIPS".
- Doyle Brunson

Come to think of it, saying Trump (and the US) is all in is wrong poker terminology. Yes, an adverse scenario unfolding for the West in the war with Iran will eventually affect the US economy too (refer to AI-ran) but strictly speaking the US isn't all in. At least not yet.

The proper poker terminology to explain the setup is that he is pot committed. Why? The US and the Gulf have taken so many losses in this conflict of not even 20 days, that calling it a day and retreating would be extremely bad optics.

Trump can't just do that without taking significant losses. The questions would then be:

"What did we achieve?"
"What was the point?"
"All this death and destruction for what?"

And so Trump needs some sort of win that would explain away all the losses. He needs a win that will make him look good for the upcoming midterms, as he sinks in the polls and suffers defects from die hard MAGAites. 

But being pot committed and badly needing a win does not guarantee you will get one. With every passing hour, the Iranians are keeping up with the escalation ladder and deconstructing Western influence in the area.

The Assassination-to-Resolve Function

Trump is playing his own hand, while the Iranians are playing their own. And while Trump is pot committed, the Iranians are ALL IN.

Assassination after assassination and the ranks are not only replaced by younger and more energetic replacements, but by more radical ones ready to take bigger risks. They see their risk/reward and they don't like it.

“If I don’t take out the other guy, I will be taken out before him.”

The Iranians have been preparing for this for decades, and have time on their side. While the Americans are fighting a war very far away from home, and time is not on their side. This is why Trump keeps saying the war will be over soon...

On the energy side, the Strait of Hormuz is now officially an Iranian matter. The Iranians decide who lives or dies in the area.

The Allies

No one is supporting the US in this war with Iran, or in trying to open the Strait of Hormuz by force. Their view is that this ends badly for anyone involved, so they would rather stay away. But this doesn't mean they won't be affected in the process.

1) What happens when Crude and Product run out?
2) How will energy rationing affect consumer confidence and the economy?
3) What happens to the stock indices from here and the Wealth Effect that has been holding up markets so well for so long?
4) Where do we go from here?

By controlling the Strait, Iran aims to shape a New World Order of sorts. If you aren't with them, you don’t get Strait privileges. If you are with them, they can do things for you.

This may seem absurd as you read this, but it's already happening. This allows energy to flow without catastrophic disruptions, while pressuring Washington and the whole world into a new status quo.

A status quo where the broader West+ fractures between itself as conflicts of interest take precedent over the "collective".

After the Greenland/NATO debacle, Europe and the UK are no longer willing to play ball. They appease and caress Donald’s insecurities – but don't go further than that. The non-US West has its own problems at home. They saw what the future holds for them — and let’s just say they don’t like it.

GOING ALL IN

The key to the "game" here is to put the US from just pot committed to all in.

• Iran wants to put them in that position so they can take the L and retreat.
• Israel and the Gulf wants to put them in that position so they can double down and eventually give Iran the L.

Complicated, I know! But this is the game right now.

The below is a quote from Hegseth explaining that the countries of the Gulf are now fighting Iran together with the US and Israel.

“The Gulf States have stepped up incredibly. In fact, Iran’s reckless attempt to strike civilian infrastructure and other targets has brought countries who might not have been as fully engaged before squarely into our orbit.

We’re proud to be defending alongside them and standing with them.

You name it UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and others who have been right there with us.”

Iran doesn't want the US to hold the cards, they don't want them to make decisions from a place of limited risk. And the first way they are doing that is by attacking the Petrodollar.

It's no wonder that even Trump himself publicly retreated from any escalation that would put further at risk the energy infrastructure in the area.

Now let's see how Iran plans to hit back at the Americans and what that means for Capital Preservation playbooks across the globe...