Venezuela is Taiwan
Trump's gambit feels like great risk/reward but a risky *all in*.
"The conflicts in Ukraine and around Taiwan are extensions of a greater conflict — the one between the US and the broader G7 Vs a rising China and the broader BRICS.”
The Battle for Europa, May 2024
“Plata, o plomo.”
—Pablo Escobar, Back in the day
“I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse.”
—Don Corleone, The Godfather
The Monroe Doctrine à la Trump
The US has made its move. Venezuela has been struck, Maduro and his wife have been captured and flown out of the country.
A power move by the Donald — now let’s see what comes from, and after this.
The Big Picture
This is yuge — with more dimensions and consequences than you think. But we will deconstruct them and assess them herein.
Let’s start from the top, why did Trump and the US make this move?
If I talk at my number two adversary in the region: Russia. Of course, the countries, Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua — with Russia relationships.
But why this region matters with all of its rich resources and rare Earth elements?
You’ve got the lithium triangle, which is needed for technology today — 60% of the world’s lithium is in the lithium triangle, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile. We just have the largest oil reserves, light sweet crude, discovered off of Guyana over a year ago.
You have Venezuela’s resources as well, with oil, copper, gold. In the Amazon, lungs of the world. We have 31% of the world’s fresh water in this region, too. I mean, it’s just off the charts. We have a lot to do. This region matters. So it has a lot to do with national security. And we need to step up our game.
—Gen. Laura Richardson, from early 2025.
So we have the economic supremacy angle, security of supply and procurement of resources playbook. We all know that the cheap procurement of resources is key to economic supremacy. And we all know what happens when colonisation retreats — I’m looking at you British Empire 🫵🏻
Now, in an attempt to MAGA and prolong and continue American Supremacy; Trump is engaging in some late-stage empire balance-sheet repair!
The truth is, he is forced to. The choices are either playing a good offence or going to the table ready to play second fiddle. This is the American reality today — forget about Supremacy or Exceptionalism.
China is cornering critical metals, signing up too many resource-rich countries to their team and has one foot on Taiwan and its strategic semiconductor industry. On top of all this, it seems to be winning the Economic Supremacy war too.
The US is cornered, what’s a Trump to do?
And let’s not forget about the US Fiscal situation; deficits are out of control and the debt is officially unsustainable. Trump can’t cut a dollar from the budget or everything comes crumbling down.
So why not acquihire Venezuela by force and merge Venezuela’s assets with the American Empire? 💡
National Security and Domestic Interests
This Administration published its National Security Strategy in November of 2025 — a 33 page document outlining how Trump et al. see the world and the future of the US in it. (Or the future of the world in the US!)
Before we analyse the important bits from the document, I note the following.
This is obviously not about drugs or borders — but both a forced move and one that makes a lot of sense from Trump’s POV. The thing is, can it backfire? 🪃🔥
