💬New thread from Philoinvestor

Philoinvestor.com is now hosted on Ghost.

See this short post so you know how to login to the new site *and* turn on e-mail notifications.

You need to turn on e-mails because you won't be able to read the posts from Substack anymore.

Meanwhile, please feel free to email me or DM me 🦉

WHAT IS HAPPENING?

If you haven't already, read our last post AI-ran. On how the energy chokepoint in the Middle East will affect the economy and the AI cycle.

Our suspicions at the time of posting are now increasing as Iran and Israel/US are bombing each other's Oil/Gas fields and those of the nearing countries.

See https://www.philoinvestor.com/ai-ran/ for numbers on production and capacity. This is a major disaster.

THE NARRATIVE

The story by the Trump WH is that it's all good, the US is winning and that the war will be over soon.

The Iranians have showed zero willingness to stop the conflict, and I think that it will only expand from here.

--> We held the exact same view before all this started.

TRUMP

Check #5 here, "If things go as I expect them, Trump won't complete his term"

https://x.com/philoinvestor/status/2022702777881825485?s=20

There's a lot going on and we are working double time to cover everything.

GEOPOLITICS

The complexity of the situations is intractable but one need's some sort of thesis right? There's a lot to say about the future of the Gulf Monarchies and the KSA.

It seems MBS went with the plan to hit Iran, to try and get rid of the Iranian threat and pivot his economy to newer industries and diversify from energy.

It isn't going great for him and Saudi could be changed forever.

Note that many royals are on the sidelines waiting for MBS to stumble. A lot of internal Saudi royal politics in the background.

EUROPE / UK / NATO

No one is supporting the US in this war with Iran, or in trying to open the Strait of Hormuz by force.

I think their view is that this will be a major disaster that they want nothing to do with.

But this doesn't mean they won't be affected in the process

THE QUESTIONS

1) What happens when Crude and Product starts to be in lack of supply? 

2) How will energy rationing affect consumer confidence? 

3) What happens to the stock indices from here - and by extension, the wealth effect?

No need to repeat myself, read AI-ran.

Why does the Philochat look like this? 

I vibecoded an alternative to the Substack Community Chat and I use that HTML file to write the Philochats from now. 

This is why the format seems a bit different, you can comment using the button below. 

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